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Originally Posted by alextsakiris  produces noise???... it is noise! Why 2 minutes? Why not 3?Why not 1? It was a totally arbitrary cirtera completely removed from any consideration about what the experiment was about.
I think I'll write a blog entry on this just to get it off my chest! |
Alex, on your youtube video you've made a big deal of how accurate the correlation is between when the dog starts the "signalling" and the time when the owner starts the return journey. You can't have it both ways.
Sheldrake made a big deal about the video from Austrian TV where the correlation was apparently almost exact.
You have to come up with some criteria to use.
You can't just use the proportion of time that the dog spends "signalling" in the main and return periods for the reasons I have outlined above.
If the dog assumes the "signalling" position at any time between the start of the trial and when the owner returns then there will be a statistical difference between the proportion of time that the dog spends "signalling" during the main and return periods. This is hardly convincing evidence of psychic dogs.
If you are going to take the Randi Challenge then you are going to have to come up with criteria for judging the success of your demonstration.
How are you going to determine the success of a trial?
What statistical tests are you going to use?
If the dog starts "signalling" 30 minutes before the owner starts coming home is that a success? If the dog starts "signalling" 30 minutes after the owner starts coming home is that a success? According to Sheldrake's criteria they would.