Quote:
Originally Posted by pacificwhim  Now, as to Alex's work...I agree he needs to clear up some confusion about how many taped sessions have been made IN TOTAL and if there were some that were not taped, why?
Were these test runs? I could not agree more that even the sniff of a file drawer will kill all credibility of this research. Why is Experiment #1 time coded as later than #2? Was there a reason for this switch? |
- 3 videos have been completed. Not sure how to count the "total trials" as we've been doing a lot of work to get the set-up right and working with Tommy's family. For example, we have a couple of trials where the dogs were not totally alone, and others where the wait time was very short, but then this is preliminary (see below)
- as far as #2, versus #1 this just has to do with the order I released them on YouTube.
- MOST IMPORTANTLY - these are preliminary results. The heavy lifting research will be done by folks like Dr. Clive Wynne and other animal behavior experts at top Universities.
Quote:
|
However, some observations. First, if anyone can tell me how Alex's belief that dog telepathy is valid can change the behavior of the dog on the tapes, I'd love to hear it. Maybe Alex is telepathic and the dog is going where he wants it to go, is that it?
|
- important point and one of the nice things about working with canines... hard for your beliefs to rub off.
Quote:
Yes, prior belief can influence experimental methodology, but let me bring this up:
Alex has contacted the JREF about taking the Challenge (and spare me your tired rant, Venom, about his not knowing how to fill out the application form; I find it entirely likely that he wanted to get Randi to agree to his proposed skeptical animal expert before going to the trouble of filling out the application). Does anyone honestly think he would do so if he were producing his results fraudulently to support his bias by, say, editing the tapes to make it look like the dog was waiting for a longer period, or by cueing the dog in a way that's undetectable on camera? Does anybody think Alex is stupid enough to think that such deceptions wouldn't be revealed if and when he takes the JREF challenge, resulting in his complete humiliation? Of course they would.
Possible conclusions: a) Alex is a fraud and delusional. I find this unlikely. b) He hopes the JREF will refuse his application so he can say "I tried," and go on falsifying his work. I also find this very unlikely, as there's every chance the JREF will say, "bring it on." c) Alex is doing his experiments honestly with the intent of tightening them up as he progresses, something that happens in all areas of science, and the results he has received so far are intriguing, need replication and he feels they can stand up to scrutiny. I think c) is far more likely. Why carry out a fraud so publicly?
|
- I'll have much more to say on this later... for now... when I interviewed James Randi on Skepitko he agreed with me about the need for this research to be judged by competent researchers with expertise in this field... not sure he still feels that way.
Quote:
|
Alex has made some contradictory statements about the number of experimental trials and the conditions under which dogs are more likely to wait, and he should address those, as well as implementing Paul's excellent ideas (the one about having the owner start home and then change her mind is bloody brilliant).
|
- there are a lot of variations on the basic format that can be tested once we have a better handle on the underlying phenomena. Important to leave as much of the natural home environment in tack until we know more.
Quote:
|
Beyond that, he seems to be doing what many inexperienced researchers have done: testing, finding the flaws, then tightening things up as they go along. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and be supportive as he goes forward with something that I suspect most of us have never tried. If he fails, he fails. If he succeeds, I'll give him immense credit and accept his data as valid evidence that something worth investigating is going on.
|
- Again, my goal is to invigorate mainstream scientific interest in an area of research that should have been explored long ago. Along the way, I will continue to share what I'm discovering.