 Some thoughts
Jacob, the comments by the Randi acolytes are predictable. I do have some theories about why no one has won the JREF Challenge:
1. The entire enterprise is so permeated by contempt, snarkiness and ugliness that many individuals who are serious about their psi practices won't even lower themselves to apply. They don't want to dirty their hands.
2. Though hundreds of well-designed experiments have proved the existence of psi beyond reasonable doubt, it remains an elusive large-scale phenomenon that appears to be largely connected to the subconscious. So I suspect the number of people who can produce at will is very small. I've had many precognitive experiences but I couldn't make one happen right now if you put a gun to my head.
3. There are a hell of a lot of deluded people out there who for one reason or another believe they have some kind of "power." They also tend to have some other psychological issues that make them crave recognition or reward, so the crackpots are the ones who tend to apply.
4. The standards for evidence appear to be far beyond a typical experiment. Instead of meeting the p=.01 standard for statistical significance found in most lab experiments, applicants appear to have to meet a much higher standard, such as the girl who could purportedly identify people's diseases but had to get more than 50% right (when chance was 25%) to win.
5. I suspect (but don't know this) that there have probably been some people who have displayed abilities that would qualify to win the JREF prize, but have been disqualified. I don't believe for a second that it's about revealing truth; it's about promoting Randi and the "cause" of Skepticism and denying that psi exists, regardless of the evidence. So it would not surprise me at all if someone exhibiting real psi ability was rejected because they might threaten the Randi paradigm. This is the same line of thought that compels so-called Skeptics to say things like "There is no evidence that any of this is true, but I would be open to it if there were." There is plenty of evidence that they will not acknowledge, and if they did review it they would invent reasons to poke holes in it.
The JREF Challenge is a brilliant ploy, just by virtue of the fact that we're discussing it when scientists don't give it the time of day. It's a pure pop culture thing, but it gives Skeptics a brainless fallback to say, "Well, if such-and-such is real, why don't they win the million dollars?" And then any reason is an excuse and subject to much derision. It's a self-made straw man. Brilliant.
But why do we keep talking about it? Who cares? Let it die an anonymous death.  |