what IF someone won Randi's challenge

[Psibeliever]

Other than your annoyance at the rule that disallows absolutely anyone from applying, what is your point?

No point - this is just a discussion. But we have several points in agreement.

[hoggworks]

In answer to the original question, what if someone won the challenge?

I'd be thrilled; how awesome (in the fullest sense of the word) to have hard evidence for a new class of abilities?

[Limbo]

If someone beat the MDC, and nothing much changed in terms of the acceptance of psi by the establishment...that could conceivably (hopefully) lead to a large grass-roots movement, an anti-pseudoskeptic/anti-materialism movement. A 'psi liberation' movement of sorts, kind of like the feminist movement or the gay/lesbian movement...marching in the streets and picketing, demanding change.

That would be cool.

[Psibeliever]

I wouldn't hold my breath on that one. But more people believe in psi than a few decades ago, so that is an encouraging trend.

As for Randi, he pretends to be open minded, but he's actually on a witchhunt.

[.NetRolller 3D]

By the way, here is the possible way to beat the price using "weak" ESP:
Most ESP tests show only a slight (but consistent) deviation from the expected results (e.g. in a test where the nominal chance of a hit is 50%, someone consistently scores 52%). In the long run, such an effect is statistically significant, but it is by no means "impressive" by human measures. BUT, consider these:
1. Shannon's theorem states that "however contaminated with noise interference a communication channel may be, it is possible to communicate digital data (information) nearly error-free up to a given maximum rate through the channel."
2. The fact that a deviation does appear during tests, but it always remains at a low level suggests that (analog?) communication is taking place, but is heavily garbled by noise.
3. This would mean that ESP is a "noisy channel", and therefore has a nonzero Shannon limit.

So, instead of trying to apply ESP on "raw" tests (e.g. testing telepathy with Zener cards), and just comparing the results with the expected hits, why not make the objects (e.g. the Zener cards) code some digital data (the "message"), protected with a heavily redundant error-correction code (e.g. one that increases data size to 1500%, but only needs 10% of the transmitted, protected data to recover the original). As the "receiving" subject senses the cards, assuming that we are witnessing actual psychic ability, the received results will likely contain enough signal (that is, receptions produced by ESP, not by random chance, i.e. noise) to recover the original message.

This would make the test take longer, but it would produce tangible results. (A failure to find a coding scheme that is under the Shannon limit, i.e. a Shannon limit of 0 indicates fairly well that no psychic ability was detected, and the results were only a game of chance.)

[Psibeliever]

This would make the test take longer, but it would produce tangible results. (A failure to find a coding scheme that is under the Shannon limit, i.e. a Shannon limit of 0 indicates fairly well that no psychic ability was detected, and the results were only a game of chance.)

Even if there were tangible results, the skeptics would still refuse to believe it.

[Ersby]

I'm sure there'll be a few people who'll refuse to accept the initial results, but if it's tangible and practicle, whether they believe it or not won't be important.

Myself, I don't understand netroller's idea, but it sounds interesting.

[jacob]

Being an Electronics Engineer I can understand the idea of what you propose but I don't understand how to apply this actually in a psi research.
Any concrete ideas, .NetRoller?

Originally Posted by .NetRolller 3D

By the way, here is the possible way to beat the price using "weak" ESP:
Most ESP tests show only a slight (but consistent) deviation from the expected results (e.g. in a test where the nominal chance of a hit is 50%, someone consistently scores 52%). In the long run, such an effect is statistically significant, but it is by no means "impressive" by human measures. BUT, consider these:
1. Shannon's theorem states that "however contaminated with noise interference a communication channel may be, it is possible to communicate digital data (information) nearly error-free up to a given maximum rate through the channel."
2. The fact that a deviation does appear during tests, but it always remains at a low level suggests that (analog?) communication is taking place, but is heavily garbled by noise.
3. This would mean that ESP is a "noisy channel", and therefore has a nonzero Shannon limit.

So, instead of trying to apply ESP on "raw" tests (e.g. testing telepathy with Zener cards), and just comparing the results with the expected hits, why not make the objects (e.g. the Zener cards) code some digital data (the "message"), protected with a heavily redundant error-correction code (e.g. one that increases data size to 1500%, but only needs 10% of the transmitted, protected data to recover the original). As the "receiving" subject senses the cards, assuming that we are witnessing actual psychic ability, the received results will likely contain enough signal (that is, receptions produced by ESP, not by random chance, i.e. noise) to recover the original message.

This would make the test take longer, but it would produce tangible results. (A failure to find a coding scheme that is under the Shannon limit, i.e. a Shannon limit of 0 indicates fairly well that no psychic ability was detected, and the results were only a game of chance.)

[anonymous]

Originally Posted by jacob

Being an Electronics Engineer I can understand the idea of what you propose but I don't understand how to apply this actually in a psi research.
Any concrete ideas, .NetRoller?

This is not my area of expertise but I think the following might be what .Net Roller is suggesting (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Error-c...How_it_works):

Make a code using 3 zener cards (or one ganzfeld image, or one remote viewing target) per character and convert a text message into that code. Try to send the message psychically many many times.

Take the most frequent zener card (or ganzfeld image, or remote viewing target) recieved in all the trials for each position in the transmission. This sequence, when decoded should give the original message.

Someone with more expertise could propose a more efficient code, and a statistician could probably suggest how many trials should be run based on effect size suggested by experimental data.

However, I don't think this will really refute skeptical criticisms that the effect size is caused by flaws in the experimental design. Whatever flaw is giving the false positives would be still be giving them eventhough the data encodes a message.

Also, if you are getting a statistically significant result in the raw trials I don't see how you could get a negative result by letting the sequence of images represent a coded message.

What this could do is help measure the signal to noise ratio and bandwidth of psi if you accept that the experiments are detecting a real paranormal phenomena.

[Miguel]

Originally Posted by kellycat

Now, before the skeptics barrage me with messages that it is impossible...

I am only speaking THEORETICALLY. You know, for fun.

What do you imagine would be the reaction of believers and skeptics? Of the media? Of organized religions? Of the gov't?

It would, of course, depend on how exactly the prize was won. Also on whether the demonstration could be repeated.

The larger the demonstrated effect was the more doubtful skeptics should be expected to be. A large effect would be difficult to reconcile with the difficulty of obtaining unambigous proof of psi in the past.
Regardless of that: If it could not be repeated skeptics would simply conclude either trickery or a fluke.
Even if it could be repeated one should expect a few incorrigible hold-outs to remain.

Believers would probably be ecstatic regardless of. Claims that winning the MDC challenge was impossible would be forgotten I expect. BTW I find that claims that the MDC was impossible to win come usually from believers rather than skeptics.
Also the argument that the MDC does not constitute scientific proof would be buried.

I don't see why the government would react at all. Or anyone who is not already interested in psi. I think it would be miscellaneous news like someone winning a world record.


I wonder:
What should happen according to "believers"?