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Originally Posted by Open Mind Look dude .... I could get more people in a single day than JREF have tested in 12 years by simply walking down a city main street and asking them to invent a claim for a test to win 1 million!!! . |
why don't you do that , would be a good test :
if you collected these people , ask them to clearly , and in understandable langauge , state their claim : you will see how many you have left
then with those left you try to agree on a protocol , how many are left now ?
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Some people would even do it merely for the media attention ....
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i would say it is the other way around since history shows all tests were negative they probably are afraid of negative publicity
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so what is putting people off chancing their luck for Randi's million?
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again,
- lack of ability to clearly state, in understandable langauge , their claims
- conscious realization they cannot make good on their claim
- subconscious realization they cannot make good on their claim ,usually with some sort of rationalization : for instance stating the tests are not fair , cannot perform in front of skeptic, Randi is dishonest etc..
- for al lot of them , ignoring the challenge because they are frauds
- as you yourself stated , small effect sizes that arguably fall within noise levels
- in case of scientists , staking their reputations
etc..
and not :
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The answer clearly must be something JREF is doing to put entrants off, since they are only testing about 2 people per year
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because you can not force someone to take up the challenge
that is the selfevident nature of a challenge
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The JREF prize is a publicity stunt to influence media and public opinion.
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let me tell you a story about a stunt ,
Australian doctor Barry marshall had serendipitously discovered that the bacteria helicobacter pylori was an important cause for peptic ulster
general knowledge at that time said : no bacteria survive in the acid enviroment of the stomac
so it took a long time to convince the scientific world of this by the normal process , normally no problem , but in this case there was some urgency
in bad cases , people were being treated by removing the most effected part of the stomac
in 1984 he decided to do something and infected himself with a culture of helicobacter , promptly got symptoms , and subsuquently cured himself with a mix of acid inhibitors and antibiotics
this was considered a stunt but ultimately the result was an immediate interest in his work which speeded up the research and resulting cure
for completeness
it was never actually shown , the bacteria was in his stomac , despite of the symptoms
but that didn't stop him from being awarded a nobel prize in 2005
this story makes me wonder how come this never happened for the PSI world ?
the JREF challenge , if won , surely could do the same
why doesn't one of the big names say , screw being unscientific , i am tired of being doubted, i work something out in my lab , get my data straight and do the test
if there are doubts about honesty , there are ways enough to do this very publicly
so if the JREF are dishonest at least that can be shown
why not take something that is percieved to have a large effect and try it ?
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. JREF haven't conducted any proper studies, JREF have not attempted replications of any parapsychology lab claims ... JREF have tested less than 30 people in a brief test. And you prefer to trust JREF instead? Why
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they never stated research was their mission , wher did you get that ?
i trust the JREF for what they do with the challenge
it is very elegant in it's simplicity
it is what it is : a challenge
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the JREF prize does not ask to prove a specific claim , but to show any paranormal claim is true so a correct analogy would be " the million dollar medicine callenge : prove any medicine works " not : prove aspirin works
| This is just plain wrong It has to be a specific, detailed claim to enter JREF prize challenge
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i probably wasn't clear i was establishing your analogy does not work ,
in your setup i have to enter aspirin in a similar challenge , on choice only
while i would rather enter an other medicin
in Randi's challenge the candidate has the freedom to choose which ability/effect he or she wants to demostrate
in doing that he or she will indeed need to be specific about his ability
what you are proposing would be Randi saying you have to show you can dowse
while you were hoping to win a cool million proving , let's say, telekinesis
not a trivial difference , right?
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Yes, which makes lab parapsychology results actually better in comparison not worse, as a placebo response isn't fixed reference point, it varies from person to person
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that is why there has to be accounted for the placebo effect in a statistical way in tests
so if any form of supernatural effect would score better than placebo
which can be up to 30%
why the hell has Randi still got his money ?
also direct in conflict with this previous statement
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The weight of evidence favours psi existing - generally weak effects - that cannot win in short stunt prize challenges
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this discussion would be so unnecessary if the challenge would be won